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Economy

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New York Fed recession probability model since 1960

New York Fed recession probability model since 1960.png

Globalization and global profit margins since 1995

Globalization and global profit margins since 1995.png

Average tariff rate for select countries since 1830

Average tariff rate for select countries since 1830.png

Trade openness percent since 1875

Trade openness percent since 1875.png

Commodities to S&P 500 ratio since 1970

Commodities to S&P 500 ratio since 1970.png

Ominous spike in jobs hard to get

Ominous spike in jobs hard to get.png

U.S. dollar index since 1995

U.S. dollar index.png

Corporate credit: rife with more highly levered companies

Corporate credit rife with more highly levered companies.png

Comparison of current global yields to their respective lowest historic levels

Comparison of current global yields to their respective lowest historic levels.png

Markets believe the Fed tightening will be put on pause and longer term rates will stay low

Descending terminal yields.png

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